A study conducted by CERESCO for INTERBEV, based on projections by the Institut de l’Élevage, assesses the socio-economic, environmental, and territorial consequences of a 19% decline in the cattle population by 2030. This contraction - equivalent to the loss recorded between 1960 and 2000 - would result in a 20% reduction in finished animals, threatening 37,000 direct and indirect jobs, particularly in rural areas (Massif Central, western France). Permanent grasslands, which cover 44% of the utilized agricultural area, could lose 1.4 million hectares, risking conversion into cultivated land, urbanization, or scrubland, thus impacting landscapes, biodiversity, and carbon storage (up to 64 Mt CO₂ eq released in the most pessimistic scenario).
The trade balance would become negative (–€330 million euros compared to +€740 million euros today), driven by a disconnection between stable consumption (–4.3%) and a sharp decline in production (–18.5%), leading to an increase in meat imports. While domestic greenhouse gas emissions would decrease (–18%), those linked to imports could double (10 Mt CO₂ eq/year), cancelling out any climate gains. The reduction in cattle manure (–18% organic nitrogen) would increase reliance on mineral fertilizers (+18 kt nitrogen), and the loss of grasslands would degrade ecosystem services (biodiversity, soil quality).
This transition raises issues of food sovereignty and territorial resilience, requiring sectoral support to reconcile the ecological transition with the preservation of positive externalities of livestock farming (carbon storage, landscape maintenance).
